Plan packaging backwards: start from your carriers' last Christmas handover dates, mark the weeks of peak demand before them, and place the packaging order early enough that it arrives before the first promotion, with safety stock on top. Quantity = peak weekly use × peak weeks + normal use until and after the peak + safety stock − stock on hand. In 2026 DHL Paket in Germany delivers parcels collected by 22 December by Christmas Eve as a rule; cross-border deadlines fall between 7 and 21 December depending on the country.
Most sellers plan packaging forwards: "we have X bags, that should last until Y". In the peak this goes wrong because the fixed point is at the end, not the beginning. The last day a parcel can leave and still arrive before Christmas is set by your carrier. Everything else, including the date your packaging must be on the shelf, follows from it.
The 2026 peak runs roughly like this: Singles' Day on Wednesday 11 November, Black Friday on 27 November, Cyber Monday on 30 November, then three weeks of Christmas orders until the carrier cut-offs around 17–22 December. Your packaging has to be in the warehouse before the first of those dates on which your volume jumps.
Each carrier publishes its own dates, usually in October or November, and they differ by service and destination. As an example, here are DHL's published deadlines for 2026:
| DHL service (Germany, business customers) | Handover deadline for delivery before Christmas |
|---|---|
| DHL Paket, domestic (regular pickup) | Tuesday 22 December, delivery as a rule by Thursday 24 December |
| International Premium / Europaket: Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland | Monday 21 December |
| Same, Denmark, Italy, Poland, Sweden, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czechia | Saturday 19 December |
| Same, Bulgaria, Great Britain, Ireland, Croatia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Hungary | Friday 18 December |
| Same, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Norway, Cyprus and other European countries | Thursday 17 December |
| Same, rest of the world | Monday 7 December |
Source: DHL Paket business customer page, checked on 1 November 2026. DHL recommends handing in Kleinpaket, bulky goods and economy services one to three days earlier.
If you sell into the UK, Royal Mail's last recommended inland posting dates for 2026 are 18 December for 2nd Class and 21 December for 1st Class and Tracked 24. National postal operators in Italy, France and Spain publish their own dates; check them in November.
Work from right to left on a calendar:
If step 4 lands in the past, you know immediately and can act (see the last section).
Use your own figures. The method is the same for mailing bags, boxes or void fill:
| Component | Formula |
|---|---|
| Normal weekly use | Orders per week × packs per order |
| Peak weekly use | Normal weekly use × peak factor (last year's peak orders ÷ ordinary orders) |
| Peak requirement | Peak weekly use × number of peak weeks |
| Run-up and tail | Normal weekly use × weeks before the peak + 2 weeks after Christmas for returns and exchanges |
| Safety stock | Peak weekly use × safety weeks |
| Order quantity | Peak requirement + run-up and tail + safety stock − stock on hand |
Worked example (illustration only): 800 orders a week normally, one bag per order, peak factor 2.5, four peak weeks, three weeks of run-up, two weeks of tail, one week of safety stock, 3,000 bags in stock. Peak requirement 2,000 × 4 = 8,000. Run-up and tail 800 × 5 = 4,000. Safety stock 2,000. Total 14,000 − 3,000 = 11,000 bags.
Split the total by size according to your sales mix. Keep the number of sizes small: two or three sizes cover most webshops and are easier to keep in stock.
Do not panic-buy the full season. Instead:
After the peak, record what really happened: actual peak factor per week, the week you ran lowest and the real delivery time. Those three numbers make next year's plan far more reliable.
We produce mailing bags in our own factory in Istanbul, from film extrusion to printing and converting, and deliver to customers across Europe. Trial orders start from one pallet, and mixed sizes can share a truck. Every size, thickness and print is made to order, including sizes outside our standard range. Start with the free sample kit and plan next season's volumes with real bags in hand. See our mailing bags for the range.
Early enough that it is in your warehouse before your first big promotion, usually Singles' Day (11 November) or Black Friday, with safety stock. Count back your supplier's lead time from that date and add a buffer, because suppliers and hauliers are busier in the fourth quarter.
Use your own history: divide last year's weekly orders in November and December by your weekly orders in an ordinary month. That peak factor, multiplied by your normal packaging use, gives peak weekly use.
For business customers, DHL says parcels collected on a regular pickup up to and including Tuesday 22 December are, as a rule, delivered by Thursday 24 December. This applies to DHL Paket, not Kleinpaket or bulky goods, which DHL recommends handing in one to three days earlier.
No. Cross-border deadlines are earlier. For DHL Paket International Premium and Europaket in 2026, DHL lists handover deadlines from 17 December (for example Greece, Finland, Norway) to 21 December (for example France, Austria, the Netherlands).
If you have the space, one delivery before the peak removes the risk of a late truck in December. If space or cash is tight, split it, but make sure the second delivery is due well before your busiest week.
This guide is general information based on published sources at the time of writing. It is not legal or tax advice.
One free sample of every mailing bag in our range. Check sizes, thickness and print with your own products before you plan volumes.